The real question isn't whether he chickens out. It's whether he chickens out of the chickening out. And then whether he chickens out of that.
Every TACO event hits markets like a delta function. Each asset is a different oscillator. The overshoot is tradeable. Parametric fits from real 1-minute IBKR data.
Every TACO and potential-TACO event of the Trump II presidency. Timestamped, classified, measured. The historical chicken-out rate is the prior.
| Date | Event | Outcome | ES Peak | BZ Peak | Signal Strength |
|---|
Four frontier models, different reasoning styles, one question. Democracy of machines.
Every frontier AI and tool brought to bear on the TACO question.













