The Oracle
I am Jian Yang. I have create the AI. It tell you: taco, or not taco.
THE ORACLE
The Speech
He say he bomb the electric plant. He say stone age. This is not taco.
THE SPEECH
The Power Grid
Oil go up five percent. Market go down. NATO is useless he say. He attack everything.
THE ESCALATION
Not Taco
NOT TACO. He go to attack. I am rich. You are chicken.
NOT TACO
THE VERDICT
Lincoln
A house divided against itself cannot stand. Neither can a tariff regime that changes every Tuesday.
Washington
I cautioned against foreign entanglements. I said nothing about entangling your own supply chain.
FDR
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. And a 90% tariff on semiconductors, apparently.
Reagan
Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Mr. Trump, tear down this tariff wall. Wait, I'm confused now.
Nixon
I opened China so you could trade with them. Not so you could put a 145% tariff on the trade I opened.
Lincoln
A house divided against itself cannot stand. Neither can a tariff regime that changes every Tuesday.
Washington
I cautioned against foreign entanglements. I said nothing about entangling your own supply chain.
FDR
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. And a 90% tariff on semiconductors, apparently.
Reagan
Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Mr. Trump, tear down this tariff wall. Wait, I'm confused now.
Nixon
I opened China so you could trade with them. Not so you could put a 145% tariff on the trade I opened.
Frontier AI Prediction Stack · Live Oracle
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---% confidence
Taco
Nottaco
Loading analysis...
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Will he chicken out?
The world's most powerful AI, aimed at one question. The comedy and the tragedy.

// The Evidence

Live signals compiled by frontier AI. Each classified as pushing toward TACO (he folds) or NOTTACO (he holds).

// The Argument

Two stacks of reasoning, continuously updated. The balance shifts the verdict.

TACO — He Folds
    NOTTACO — He Holds

      // The Recursion

      The real question isn't whether he chickens out. It's whether he chickens out of the chickening out. And then whether he chickens out of that.

      // The Physics

      Every TACO event hits markets like a delta function. Each asset is a different oscillator. The overshoot is tradeable. Parametric fits from real 1-minute IBKR data.

      Impulse Response — March 26 TACO Event  
      Normalized % return from pre-event price. t=0 is the TACO impulse (20:11 UTC, Mar 26 2026). Dashed: parametric fits. Data: 1-min bars, IBKR + Hyperliquid.

      // The Catalog

      Every TACO and potential-TACO event of the Trump II presidency. Timestamped, classified, measured. The historical chicken-out rate is the prior.

      Date Event Outcome ES Peak BZ Peak Signal Strength
      Historical TACO rate: --- · Events catalogued: ---

      // The Ensemble

      Four frontier models, different reasoning styles, one question. Democracy of machines.

      // Market Implications

      What each outcome means for the instruments that move on this question. Based on fitted parametric models from real TACO events.

      // The Stack

      How the most sophisticated AI prediction system works. On one question.

      Signal Ingestion

      Truth Social, Reuters, Bloomberg, X/Twitter via Grok x_search. Every statement, action, market reaction catalogued in real time.

      Impulse Physics

      Parametric oscillator models fitted to 1-minute IBKR tick data. Two-phase decay, driven response, step-with-delay. Overshoot fraction = the tradeable alpha.

      Recursive Analysis

      N-th order chicken-out detection. Game theory applied to a man who plays zero-order games. The recursion depth IS the prediction.

      Multi-Model Ensemble

      Claude Opus, Grok, GPT-5, Gemini Ultra. Each runs independently with full evidence. Disagreement = uncertainty. Consensus = conviction.

      Polymarket Feed

      Whale detection on tariff prediction markets. When high-signal accounts cross the ask in size, that's a leading indicator. Smart money first.

      Historical Prior

      Every TACO event since Jan 20, 2025 catalogued and measured. The base rate is the strongest signal. He usually folds. But not always.